The Italian Game: Hungarian Defense with Nc3

At first glance, Black's setup looks modest: a solid pawn on e5, knights developed to f6 and c6, and the bishop tucking away to e7. There are no flashy tactics, no early pawn sacrifices. Yet the statistics tell a remarkable story. Across nearly two million games, Black actually outscores White 49.4% to 46.2%, with only 4.3% draws. That's an unusual result for a position where Stockfish gives White a +0.48 edge. The reason? Black's position is very hard to crack, and many White players overreach or misplace their pieces. The Hungarian Defense often lures White into impatient attacks that backfire, while Black waits for the right moment to seize the initiative.

Stockfish's top recommendation for White is 5.d4, aiming to open the centre and challenge Black's solidity. After 5.d4 exd4 6.Nxd4, the engine plans 6...O-O, completing kingside castling before White can generate serious threats. This is a natural, sound response — Black gives up the centre pawn but gains quick development and a safe king. In the resulting position, Black's pieces are active and White's extra central space is balanced by Black's easy play. Practise this line in the drill until the sequence 5.d4 exd4 6.Nxd4 O-O feels automatic.

The most popular move in the position is 5.d3 (played over 796,000 times), followed by 5.O-O (394,000 games). Both are fine and lead to rich middlegames. But White also plays several impatient moves that the statistics mark as errors, and you need to know how to punish them. The most common mistake is 5.Ng5, played over 160,000 times despite losing roughly 1.2 pawns of advantage. White dreams of a Fried Liver-style sacrifice, but your knight on f6 and bishop on e7 neutralise the threat. Instead, White should have played 5.d4. Similarly, 5.a3 (72,000 games) loses about 1.1 pawns — a pointless prophylaxis that weakens the queenside. And 5.h3 (61,000 games) is an inaccuracy worth about 0.7 pawns, as it wastes time and slightly weakens the kingside. When White plays any of these, trust your solid position and look to outplay them in the middlegame.

Knowing the scoring trends for each of White's options helps you anticipate what your opponent might try. Here is how White performs in the most-played continuations: 5.d3 — White scores 46.7%; 5.O-O — 45.8%; 5.d4 — 48.2%; 5.Ng5 — just 41.1%; 5.a3 — 50.0%; 5.h3 — 49.4%. Notice that White's best-scoring move is actually 5.a3 (50.0%), which is nevertheless a positional mistake according to the engine. That tells you that club players often misplay the position regardless, so even after a so-called 'mistake' you still need to play accurately. The engine's preferred 5.d4 scores 48.2% for White — below Black's win rate — showing that Black's defence is fully playable at every level.