Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation with Nc6 – Playing as White

After 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Bc4 Nc6 4.d4, the board is wide open. You've already developed your bishop to a strong diagonal, challenged the centre, and put pressure on Black's kingside. The engine evaluation of –0.04 (essentially nothing for either side) confirms this is a pure chess fight — no one is tricking anyone out of the opening. Over 3,365,642 games in the Lichess database, you as White win 54.3% of the time, Black wins 42.5%, and only 3.2% end in draws. Those numbers tell you that practical play from here heavily favours you, even if the engine says it's level. The trick is knowing how Black is most likely to go wrong.

Stockfish's top recommendation for Black here is 4…exd4, and that continuation makes sense — it's the most natural capture and leads to a balanced fight. After 4…exd4, the engine line continues e5 d5 Bb5, and you should be comfortable in that kind of open centre. The statistics back this up: exd4 is by far the most common move, played in 2,172,922 games. Your winning percentage drops slightly here to 52.4% — still favourable — because this reply keeps things most correct. If you want to test your understanding against the toughest defence, this is the line to study.

The statistics reveal three moves that hurt Black significantly more than they realise. Here's what happens when Black goes wrong: - 4…Nxe4 (340,673 games): This is an inaccuracy losing roughly 0.8 pawns. You should have scored 58.9% from this position — nearly 59% wins. The knight grab seems natural but the engine says Black should have played exd4 instead. - 4…d6 (304,971 games): Another inaccuracy, costing about 0.6 pawns. You win 54.1% here. Black tries to solidify but just wastes a tempo. - 4…d5 (163,371 games): This is a full mistake, losing around 1.1 pawns. Black pushes in the centre and it backfires — you win 58.2% of the time. - 4…Nxd4 (120,233 games): Not flagged as a mistake, but your winning percentage jumps to 56.5%. The knight is exposed after a future c3 or …Bb4+. The single most punishing reply for Black is 4…Bb4+ — only 70,378 games reach it, and you score a whopping 62.0%. Black checks your king but just loses time.

The big picture is encouraging. The engine says the starting position is dead even (–0.04), but your practical winning chances across millions of games are 54.3%. That gap exists because Black players frequently make inaccurate choices — and now you know which ones to punish. Your job is simple: stay solid, don't overreach, and let Black choose one of the losing continuations. If they pick exd4, you're in a balanced game where you can outplay them later. If they pick almost anything else, you already have a meaningful edge. The drill below lets you practice feeling the difference between the critical exd4 line and the mistakes that follow.