Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack with 3...d6 – Playing as White

After the moves 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.d4 d6 4.dxe5, Black is on the clock. You have already sacrificed the d-pawn temporarily, but you are fighting for central space and a lead in development. The engine evaluates this position at +0.57, a clear edge for White. That means you are already slightly better — not a crushing advantage, but a real, lasting plus to nurse into the middlegame. Black's king is still on e8, and if they don't recapture accurately, your initiative can grow quickly.

The engine's best move here is Nxe4. This is the only reply that keeps Black in the game. The full recommended line runs Nxe4 Be3 Be6 Bd3, after which White has solid development and a comfortable edge. Out of the 727,476 games in the database where this position occurred, about 367,175 games (roughly half) saw Black play Nxe4. In those games, White scored 52.4% — a healthy plus, but nothing like the numbers you'll see against the other options.

Three of Black's most popular replies are genuine blunders, and the statistics show just how punishing your position can be when Black steps wrong. Here is the list of known mistakes from the database, each worse than the last in terms of evaluation drop: - dxe5 – played 335,469 times (the second-most popular) but loses about 1.3 pawns. White scores a whopping 65.2% in this line. - Ng4 – seen in 8,608 games, loses about 1.2 pawns. White scores 54.8%. - Nfd7 – played 8,425 times, loses about 1.4 pawns. White scores 55.7%. If Black takes on e5 with their pawn (dxe5), they are essentially handing you a significant advantage right out of the opening.

By far the most important mistake to be ready for is dxe5, which appears in nearly half of all games from this position. When Black plays this, they are falling behind in development and giving up control of the centre. Your score of 65.2% against this move tells you that club-level players struggle to defend Black's position after it. The engine considers dxe5 about 1.3 pawns worse than the correct Nxe4. Keep developing naturally, target the weak e5-pawn, and trust that your lead in activity will do the work. Your opponent will often feel cramped and vulnerable before they know what hit them.

With 727,476 games played from this exact position, the database gives us a crystal-clear picture: White wins 58.6% of the time, draws only 4.7%, and Black wins 36.6%. That is a remarkably low draw rate for a position that isn't wildly tactical — it tells you that the opening leads to imbalanced, fighting chess. If you are a player who wants to steer the game into positions where you have the upper hand from move four, this line is a perfect fit. White's practical results are excellent, especially when you factor in how often Black picks one of the losing continuations.