Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense with 3.Qb3 — Playing as Black

Stockfish's +2.84 evaluation makes it clear: this is a near-winning edge for White. From your perspective, you are in serious danger. The problem is that 3.Qb3 attacks both the b7-pawn and the d5-pawn simultaneously, and your 3...Nc6 doesn't solve all the pressure. After the correct move 4.cxd5, White wins 73.1% of games from 1,655 examples — a devastating number. That said, the engine line runs 4.cxd5 Nb8 5.Nf3 Nf6, and Black has survived awkward positions before. The key is that many White players will not find cxd5, and that's where your chances soar.

From the 4,765 games in the database, a striking pattern emerges. The most common move, Qxb7 (1,987 games), is actually a blunder that loses roughly 5.5 pawns of advantage. White scores only 44.2% with it — meaning Black already has the upper hand when White grabs the pawn. If White plays Nf3 (628 games), that's a mistake costing 2.7 pawns, and White scores a modest 54.9%. Similarly e3 (420 games, 62.4% for White) is a mistake worth 2.6 pawns. The only move White should want is cxd5, which preserves the advantage. But in practice, White chooses something other than cxd5 nearly two-thirds of the time — and when they do, Black fights back with excellent winning chances.

If White plays 4.Qxb7, they are blundering. The queen has moved to a strange square and will soon be chased away. While a specific continuation isn't prescribed in the book, your general plan is clear: develop quickly, attack the queen, and enjoy the initiative. Black scores 55.8% in these games — a number that undersells your position because the engine says White has blundered severely. You have good practical chances to outplay your opponent from here, as the queen on b7 is a target more than a threat. Trust your development and don't rush to give it back.

White's best try is 4.cxd5. This recapture keeps everything tight and threatens to leave your knight misplaced. The engine continuation is 4...Nb8 (retreating!) 5.Nf3 Nf6, which looks awkward but is playable. Your knight goes back to b8 — not pretty, but it re-routes to d7 or c6 later. From the cxd5 line, White scores a crushing 73.1%, so you're an underdog. But remember: even here you have a few thousand games of human experience to draw from. Play solidly, develop your kingside, castle quickly, and look for a chance to strike back against White's centre. Many of those White wins came against unprepared Black players — you don't have to be one of them.