Chessy
Every row links to a full lesson where you can drill the line against an adaptive engine. The Δ column is White's score at 2000+ minus White's score U1200: a negative delta means the opening's practical edge shrinks as opponents get stronger — usually because it relies on traps and only-move punishments that low-rated players miss and high-rated players don't. The gambit table goes one step further: it compares each gambit's practical overperformance (score minus what the engine eval predicts) at low vs high rating, isolating how much of a gambit's sting is pure opponent error.
Why win rates shift with rating
Three forces move an opening's score across rating bands. Punishment accuracy: sharp lines that depend on the opponent finding a narrow defence collapse at low rating and equalise at high rating. Theory depth: mainstream systems (Ruy Lopez, Queen's Gambit) score more evenly because both sides know the plans at every level. Selection effects: some offbeat openings are only played at high level by specialists who know them deeply, which props up their 2000+ score. The Δ column captures the net effect; the biggest negative deltas are almost always trap-adjacent gambits.
Methodology
Openings: the 300 most-played lines from Chessy's corpus of 3,500+ analyzed openings (opening lines, gambits and anti-openings — trap pages excluded, since they sit at post-blunder positions). Games: Lichess Opening Explorer, blitz + rapid pools. Bands map to the explorer's rating buckets: U1200 (400–1200), 1200–1600, 1600–2000, 2000+ (2000–2500+). Openings with fewer than 2,000 games in any band are dropped from the ranking tables to keep percentages stable. Engine evaluations: Stockfish at depth 12–16, from White's perspective. The full per-band table is in the downloadable CSV/JSON below.
Openings that stop working as you climb
| Opening | ECO | White % U1200 | 1200–1600 | 1600–2000 | 2000+ | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italian: Four Knights | C50 | 50.1% | 48.9% | 47.2% | 43.3% | -6.8 |
| King's Gambit Accepted: King's Knight's Gambit | C34 | 54.5% | 55.3% | 52.5% | 47.8% | -6.7 |
| King's Gambit: exf4 | C30 | 54.5% | 55.3% | 52.5% | 47.8% | -6.7 |
| Elephant Gambit | C40 | 52.6% | 50.7% | 46.9% | 46.0% | -6.6 |
| King's Pawn Game: d5 | B00 | 53.7% | 51.3% | 48.6% | 47.8% | -5.9 |
| Scandinavian Defense: exd5 | B01 | 54.0% | 52.0% | 49.3% | 48.2% | -5.8 |
| Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation | B01 | 54.0% | 52.0% | 49.3% | 48.2% | -5.8 |
| Italian Game: Two Knights Defense: Ng5 | C55 | 54.1% | 54.0% | 50.9% | 48.3% | -5.8 |
| Two Knights Defense: Ng5 | C55 | 54.1% | 54.0% | 50.9% | 48.3% | -5.8 |
| Ruy Lopez: Morphy Defense | C70 | 54.8% | 54.0% | 51.5% | 49.0% | -5.8 |
| King's Knight Opening: Nf6 | C40 | 54.3% | 50.8% | 49.6% | 48.8% | -5.5 |
| Zukertort Opening: Lemberger Gambit: e5 | A05 | 54.3% | 50.8% | 49.6% | 48.8% | -5.5 |
| Alekhine Defense | B02 | 51.5% | 51.1% | 46.3% | 46.2% | -5.3 |
| Alekhine Defense | B02 | 51.5% | 51.1% | 46.3% | 46.2% | -5.3 |
| Italian Game: Two Knights Defense | C55 | 52.9% | 52.4% | 50.3% | 47.7% | -5.2 |
| King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation: Bc4 | C44 | 52.9% | 52.4% | 50.3% | 47.7% | -5.2 |
| Two Knights Defense | C55 | 52.9% | 52.4% | 50.3% | 47.7% | -5.2 |
| French Exchange: exd5 | C01 | 50.3% | 49.1% | 46.6% | 45.1% | -5.2 |
| Petrov Defense | C42 | 53.3% | 51.2% | 49.8% | 48.2% | -5.1 |
| Petrov's Defense | C42 | 53.3% | 51.2% | 49.8% | 48.2% | -5.1 |
Openings that get better with rating
| Opening | ECO | White % U1200 | 1200–1600 | 1600–2000 | 2000+ | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Center Game Accepted: Qxd4 | C21 | 43.0% | 44.4% | 48.4% | 53.6% | +10.6 |
| Center Game: Normal Variation | C22 | 43.0% | 44.4% | 48.4% | 53.6% | +10.6 |
| Center Game: exd4 | C20 | 44.6% | 45.2% | 48.8% | 53.8% | +9.2 |
| Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense | C50 | 49.5% | 51.5% | 53.6% | 56.2% | +6.7 |
| Center Game Accepted | C21 | 46.3% | 49.1% | 52.9% | 52.0% | +5.7 |
| King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation: Nc3 | C44 | 46.1% | 46.1% | 48.0% | 51.7% | +5.6 |
| Ruy Lopez: Steinitz Defense | C62 | 50.5% | 50.6% | 52.9% | 56.0% | +5.5 |
| Blackmar-Diemer Gambit | D00 | 45.6% | 49.8% | 51.6% | 51.0% | +5.4 |
| Van Geet Opening | A00 | 46.0% | 46.8% | 49.2% | 50.3% | +4.3 |
| Bird Opening | A02 | 44.1% | 48.9% | 50.2% | 48.3% | +4.2 |
| Bird Opening | A02 | 44.1% | 48.9% | 50.2% | 48.3% | +4.2 |
| Mikenas Defense: Nf3 | A40 | 50.0% | 52.2% | 54.1% | 54.1% | +4.1 |
| Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense: d4 | A04 | 50.0% | 52.2% | 54.1% | 54.1% | +4.1 |
| Sicilian Defense: d4 | B20 | 44.7% | 45.7% | 48.4% | 48.4% | +3.7 |
| Sicilian Defense: Closed, Traditional | B23 | 46.3% | 46.7% | 49.0% | 49.8% | +3.5 |
| Sicilian Defense: Nc3 | B20 | 46.3% | 46.7% | 49.0% | 49.8% | +3.5 |
| Scandinavian Defense: Nf3 | B01 | 44.4% | 47.0% | 48.8% | 47.5% | +3.1 |
| King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense: Nf3 | B07 | 50.4% | 50.5% | 52.4% | 53.4% | +3.0 |
| Philidor Defense: d4 | C41 | 50.4% | 50.5% | 52.4% | 53.4% | +3.0 |
| Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation | C41 | 50.4% | 50.5% | 52.4% | 53.4% | +3.0 |
Gambit practicality decay (practical score vs engine eval, by rating)
Most-played openings, White score by rating band
| Opening | ECO | White % U1200 | 1200–1600 | 1600–2000 | 2000+ | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King's Pawn Game | B00 | 50.2% | 49.9% | 49.1% | 48.4% | -1.8 |
| King's Knight Opening | C40 | 51.7% | 51.2% | 50.9% | 49.4% | -2.3 |
| King's Pawn Game: e5 | B00 | 51.7% | 51.2% | 50.9% | 49.4% | -2.3 |
| Queen's Pawn Game | A40 | 50.2% | 50.7% | 50.2% | 49.3% | -0.9 |
| King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation | C44 | 50.6% | 50.9% | 50.9% | 49.5% | -1.1 |
| Nimzowitsch Defense: Nf3 | B00 | 50.6% | 50.9% | 50.9% | 49.5% | -1.1 |
| Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense: e4 | A04 | 50.6% | 50.9% | 50.9% | 49.5% | -1.1 |
| Scandinavian Defense | B01 | 49.6% | 49.6% | 48.4% | 48.0% | -1.6 |
| Scandinavian Defense | B01 | 49.6% | 49.6% | 48.4% | 48.0% | -1.6 |
| Bishop's Opening: Nc6 | C23 | 51.6% | 51.0% | 50.4% | 48.6% | -3.0 |
| Italian Game | C50 | 51.6% | 51.0% | 50.4% | 48.6% | -3.0 |
| Italian Game | C50 | 51.6% | 51.0% | 50.4% | 48.6% | -3.0 |
| Sicilian Defense | B20 | 47.6% | 47.4% | 47.8% | 48.0% | +0.4 |
| Sicilian Defense | B20 | 47.6% | 47.4% | 47.8% | 48.0% | +0.4 |
| Bishop's Opening | C23 | 51.2% | 51.3% | 50.5% | 49.0% | -2.2 |
| French Defense | C00 | 48.6% | 48.1% | 47.8% | 48.3% | -0.3 |
| French Defense | C00 | 48.6% | 48.1% | 47.8% | 48.3% | -0.3 |
| Petrov Defense | C42 | 53.3% | 51.2% | 49.8% | 48.2% | -5.1 |
| Petrov's Defense | C42 | 53.3% | 51.2% | 49.8% | 48.2% | -5.1 |
| Zukertort Opening: Ross Gambit: e4 | A04 | 53.3% | 51.2% | 49.8% | 48.2% | -5.1 |
| King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack | C20 | 50.8% | 49.4% | 50.4% | 52.2% | +1.4 |
| King's Pawn Game: d5 | B00 | 53.7% | 51.3% | 48.6% | 47.8% | -5.9 |
| Three Knights Opening | C46 | 48.1% | 47.9% | 49.1% | 50.4% | +2.3 |
| Vienna Game: Nc6 | C25 | 48.1% | 47.9% | 49.1% | 50.4% | +2.3 |
| Van't Kruijs Opening | A00 | 46.8% | 46.4% | 46.6% | 46.5% | -0.3 |
| Philidor Defense | C41 | 51.5% | 51.1% | 51.6% | 51.7% | +0.2 |
| Center Game | C20 | 50.2% | 51.3% | 53.3% | 52.0% | +1.8 |
| Scandinavian Defense: exd5 | B01 | 54.0% | 52.0% | 49.3% | 48.2% | -5.8 |
| Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation | B01 | 54.0% | 52.0% | 49.3% | 48.2% | -5.8 |
| Caro-Kann Defense | B10 | 47.6% | 47.2% | 47.1% | 47.8% | +0.2 |
Download the data
Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 — please link back to this page.
opening-win-rates-by-rating.csv opening-win-rates-by-rating.jsongambit-roi-by-rating.csv gambit-roi-by-rating.json
Methodology: win rates and game counts from the Lichess Opening Explorer (blitz + rapid games, 1200–1600 rating bands); position evaluations from Stockfish at depth 16. Snapshot: July 2026. See the full dataset methodology for details.