The King's Pawn Opening: Speers – Can You Survive the Queen Tour?

This opening throws out normal developmental principles. You've moved your queen twice before any other piece has moved, and Black already has a knight in the centre. Your one consolation is that the queen on f5 attacks the f7 pawn and the e5 pawn, and with ...Nc6 (the engine's best reply) you can retreat with Qf3 and hope to catch Black off guard. But the numbers are brutal: you score only 24.4% from the 6,751 games where Black plays 3...Nc6. Your best practical result actually comes after 3...g6, where you score 40.4% — though the engine calls that a mistake worth about two pawns for you. The takeaway? You're relying on your opponent to overreact or blunder. If they know the simple reply 3...Nc6, you're in serious trouble.

Stockfish calculates this position at -2.08, which is a near-winning advantage for Black. That means you are in a deeply uncomfortable position. The recommended continuation for Black is 3...Nc6, hitting your queen. From there, the engine line runs 4.Qf3 Nd4 5.Qd1, forcing your queen all the way back to its starting square after just five moves. If your opponent finds this, you have lost all your early activity and Black is fully developed while you've wasted three tempi. This is the critical test: if Black plays 3...Nc6, you need to be ready to retreat calmly to d1 and accept that the opening phase went badly. The other popular replies let you off the hook somewhat — but not by much.

Here is how White scores against the most common replies Black can make after 3.Qf5, based on over 31,000 games in the Lichess database. All percentages are White's combined win + draw rate. - 3...d6 (12,765 games) — White scores 25.8%. This is also an inaccuracy worth about one pawn. - 3...Nc6 (6,751 games) — White scores 24.4%. The engine's best move, and your worst score. - 3...d5 (6,722 games) — White scores 26.0%. Another inaccuracy, losing about 0.6 pawns compared to Nc6. - 3...g6 (1,653 games) — White scores 40.4% . This is a mistake worth two pawns, but it gives you your best practical shot. - 3...Bc5 (986 games) — White scores 32.4%. - 3...Be7 (962 games) — White scores 31.5%. Notice that even Black's 'mistakes' still leave you losing most games. The Speers is a survival exercise, not a winning weapon.

If your opponent doesn't know the theory, there are three replies you can exploit. The stats show each one improves your winning chances considerably. 3...d6 — This is an inaccuracy worth about one pawn. Black blocks their light-squared bishop and doesn't challenge your queen. You can follow up by developing naturally and targeting the king side. 3...d5 — Also an inaccuracy, losing roughly 0.6 pawns. Black opens the centre, which your queen can attack. The key is to stay active and not retreat too early. 3...g6 — This is the big one: a clear mistake costing Black about two pawns. Your queen attacks g6, and after 4.Qf3 or 4.Qe4 you can pick off the f7 pawn or create serious threats against the king. If you see 3...g6, you have a real chance to turn the tables — your 40.4% score here is nearly double your usual result. Watch for this in blitz games.