After 1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Bc4 d5 4.exd5 you have reached a well-trodden crossroads in the Petrov's Defense. The position is dead level according to Stockfish — a tiny +0.12 edge for White — yet the statistics across over a million games tell a different story at the club level: White scores a whopping 57.2%. Why the gap between engine assessment and practical results? Because Black's most popular reply is a mistake, and if you know how to answer it, you can gain a serious advantage before the middlegeven begins. Let's see how.
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Play the Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation: d5 against the engine
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Find your own #1 mistake — free →What You're Fighting For
This line of the Petrov's is all about the centre. White has already captured on d5, and the d5-square is now a battleground. If Black recaptures with the knight (Nxd5 — the most common move by far) they appear to develop, but they also give White a target. The engine says Black should instead push the e-pawn with e4, keeping the centre closed and preparing a quick ...Ne5. That move is the engine's top choice for a reason: it avoids handing White free tempi and attacking chances. Your job as White is to exploit any Black move that doesn't challenge you immediately.
The Critical Moment — Black's Most Popular Blunder
Here's the key statistic every White player should know: in over 836,000 games, Black grabbed the pawn back with Nxd5 — and that move is labelled a mistake by Stockfish, losing about 1.3 pawns of equity. White scores 59.2% after it. The same goes for Bd6 (inaccuracy, –0.8 pawns) and Bc5 (mistake, –1.8 pawns). All three are dramatically more common than the engine's recommended e4. That means the vast majority of your opponents will voluntarily make things easier for you. The practical lesson: trust the engine's suggestion of e4, and be ready to punish the alternatives.
How to Punish Nxd5
When Black plays 4...Nxd5, the engine's best response is e4, kicking the knight away. After the knight retreats to Ne5, you play Qe7, attacking the knight on e5 again, and then Bb5+ — a nasty check that develops your bishop and forces Black to deal with a pin or loss of castling rights. This sequence is concrete and forcing: you gain space, time, and the initiative. The statistics back it up: White scores nearly 60% after Nxd5, so even if you don't remember the precise follow-up, simply chasing the knight with e4 is a huge improvement over passive play.
What the Statistics Tell Us About Your Chances
Across over 1.1 million games from this exact position, White wins 57.2% of the time, draws just 3.1%, and Black wins 39.7%. That lopsided three-to-two White-win ratio is unusual for a theoretically equal opening. It means that in practice, Black's natural-looking moves backfire far more often than they succeed. The 48.7% White score after the engine's best move e4 is actually lower than the overall average — because so many Black players pick the 'bad' options. Use this to your advantage: learn the simple refutation of Nxd5, and you'll join the majority of White scorers.
Results across 1,123,527 Lichess games
| Most-played continuation | Games | White wins | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nxd5Main line | 836,174 | 59.2% |
| 2 | e4 | 121,533 | 48.7% |
| 3 | Bd6 | 56,065 | 46.3% |
| 4 | Bc5 | 35,132 | 54.3% |
| 5 | Bg4 | 32,364 | 54.2% |
| 6 | c6 | 18,623 | 59.2% |
Frequently asked questions
Is Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation d5 good for White?
The engine calls this position dead level (+0.12), but in practice White scores 57.2% across over a million games. That's because Black's most common reply, Nxd5, is a mistake that gives White a clear edge. If you know the engine's recommended follow-up (e4), your practical chances are excellent.
What is the best move for Black in the Petrov Italian d5 line?
According to Stockfish, Black should play 4...e4, pushing the pawn to chase the knight and prepare ...Ne5. This keeps the position roughly equal. The most-played move Nxd5 is actually a mistake that costs Black about 1.3 pawns of advantage.
How do you punish Nxd5 in this Petrov line?
After 4...Nxd5, the engine's top move is 5.e4, kicking the knight back. White then continues with Ne5 Qe7 Bb5+, developing with tempo and leaving Black tangled. Statistically, White wins 59.2% of games after Nxd5.
What are the most common mistakes Black makes in this opening?
The three main errors are Nxd5 (a mistake worth about –1.3 pawns), Bd6 (an inaccuracy worth about –0.8 pawns), and Bc5 (a mistake worth about –1.8 pawns). In each case the engine says Black should have played e4 instead.