Chess Opening Win Rates: What 2,716 Openings Actually Score

Across 2,716 chess openings analyzed with at least 50,000 Lichess games each, the King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack (2.Qh5) scores 81.8% for White, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit scores 84.0% for Black, and the King's Pawn Game remains the single most-played opening at over 1.69 billion recorded games.

These rankings come from Chessy's corpus of analyzed chess openings, filtered to the 2,716 real openings (opening lines, gambits and anti-openings) with at least 50,000 Lichess games in the blitz and rapid pools (1200–1600 rating bands). Win rate is the share of games won by White or Black respectively; draw rate is the share drawn. Every opening name links to its full lesson page with the complete line, Stockfish evaluation, and an interactive drill.

Why win rate and Stockfish evaluation diverge

Several of the highest-scoring lines for White — the Wayward Queen Attack (2.Qh5) and the Scotch Game with 3...Bc5 among them — win far more than their objective soundness suggests. These are lines where the side that is theoretically fine still has to find an only-move or two to prove it, and at 1200–1600 rating most players don't. That gap between practical result and engine truth is exactly what the gambit ROI study quantifies for gambits specifically.

What 'most played' really measures

The most-played openings on Lichess are not sharp traps or gambits — they're broad transpositional hubs like the King's Pawn Game (1.69 billion games), Queen's Pawn Game, and King's Knight Opening. These are catch-all ECO buckets that thousands of specific move orders funnel through before diverging into named systems, which is why their game counts dwarf everything else in the corpus.

Best win rate for White

OpeningECOGamesWhite %Draw %Black %Stockfish
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack: g6 C20 442,979 81.8% 3.3% 14.9% 4.18
Scotch Game: Bc5 C45 168,159 72.4% 3.2% 24.4% 5.00
Nimzowitsch Defense: Kennedy Variation, Linksspringer Variation: Nd4 B00 749,650 69.3% 3.1% 27.6% 3.78
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation: Nc6 D21 141,544 69.0% 2.9% 28.2% 0.87
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation: b5 D20 1,577,652 67.1% 3.5% 29.4% 0.90
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation: h6 C42 544,865 66.5% 2.9% 30.6% 1.88
Vienna Gambit: Bc5 C29 112,881 66.4% 2.2% 31.3% 3.21
Vienna Game: Vienna Gambit: Bc5 C29 112,881 66.4% 2.2% 31.3% 3.16
Vienna: King's Gambit: Bc5 C29 112,881 66.4% 2.2% 31.3% 3.10
Center Game: von der Lasa Gambit: Bc5 C21 269,517 66.1% 3.1% 30.9% 1.16
Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack: Nf4 B02 71,936 65.5% 2.7% 31.9% 1.88
Englund Gambit: Mosquito Gambit A40 99,339 65.3% 3.3% 31.4% 2.46
Lemming Defense B00 153,787 65.3% 4.8% 29.9% 1.01
Italian Game: f6 C50 581,488 64.7% 3.1% 32.2% 1.54
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation: Qe2 C42 670,635 64.1% 3.5% 32.4% 1.38
Vienna Gambit: exf4 C29 1,624,574 64.0% 3.1% 32.9% 0.47
Vienna Game: Vienna Gambit: exf4 C29 1,624,574 64.0% 3.1% 32.9% 0.46
Vienna: King's Gambit: exf4 C29 1,624,574 64.0% 3.1% 32.9% 0.48
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit: Nxc6 C42 62,346 63.3% 3.5% 33.2% 1.66
King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit: dxe5 C20 342,537 63.1% 6.4% 30.5% 1.55

Best win rate for Black

OpeningECOGamesWhite %Draw %Black %Stockfish
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit: fxe5 C31 88,419 14.5% 1.5% 84.0% -4.49
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit A03 53,959 19.5% 4.3% 76.2% -2.60
Italian Game: Nd4 C50 1,864,710 22.6% 1.7% 75.7% -0.58
Irish Gambit C44 168,456 30.8% 3.1% 66.1% -2.71
Scandinavian Defense: Bc4 B01 394,845 30.6% 3.5% 65.9% -4.27
Queen's Pawn Game: Zurich Gambit D00 53,752 29.4% 5.2% 65.4% -1.76
Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit: Nc3 C50 151,691 32.9% 2.6% 64.4% -1.67
Rousseau Gambit: Nc3 C50 151,691 32.9% 2.6% 64.4% -1.53
Elephant Gambit: Bc4 C40 117,145 33.4% 3.2% 63.4% -4.34
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense: Bxc4 D20 70,126 32.5% 4.9% 62.6% -0.71
Bongcloud Attack C20 98,585 32.9% 4.6% 62.5% -1.17
Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation: Nxe5 C61 69,509 35.1% 2.9% 62.0% -2.52
King's Gambit Accepted: d4 C33 118,676 35.7% 2.7% 61.6% -1.11
Center Game: Normal Variation: Qd5 C22 338,244 35.4% 3.5% 61.1% -1.19
Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit: exf5 C50 777,701 36.2% 2.8% 60.9% -0.17
Rousseau Gambit: exf5 C50 777,701 36.2% 2.8% 60.9% -0.03
Scandinavian Defense: Bb5+ B01 206,633 35.2% 4.1% 60.7% -0.82
Englund Gambit: Main Line: Bf4 A40 2,658,638 36.9% 2.5% 60.6% 1.58
Italian: Four Knights: Nxe4 C50 1,996,273 36.5% 4.0% 59.5% -0.27
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation: Nf3 B02 82,772 37.7% 3.7% 58.6% -1.21

Highest draw rate

OpeningECOGamesWhite %Draw %Black %Stockfish
Ware Opening: Symmetric Variation A00 72,003 43.0% 12.9% 44.1% 0.44
Grob Opening: Double Grob A00 74,954 50.6% 8.8% 40.6% 0.16
Englund Gambit: Hartlaub-Charlick Gambit: Nc3 A40 63,018 55.0% 6.9% 38.0% 0.44
Englund Gambit: Hartlaub-Charlick Gambit: e4 A40 1,675,251 55.9% 6.8% 37.4% 0.39
King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense: dxe5 B07 1,675,251 55.9% 6.8% 37.4% 0.40
Caro-Kann Defense: Endgame Offer: dxe4 B10 409,474 39.7% 6.7% 53.7% 0.26
King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack: Qf6 C20 71,879 51.8% 6.7% 41.5% 0.44
Amar Opening A00 462,405 36.5% 6.4% 57.1% -0.58
King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit: dxe5 C20 342,537 63.1% 6.4% 30.5% 1.55
Kádas Opening A00 2,643,215 39.2% 6.3% 54.4% -0.51
Kádas Opening A00 2,643,215 39.2% 6.3% 54.4% -0.46
Englund Gambit: Hartlaub-Charlick Gambit: Bf4 A40 98,236 61.6% 6.1% 32.2% 1.61
Zukertort Opening: Ware Defense A04 88,448 55.7% 6.1% 38.3% 0.81
Sodium Attack A00 185,389 37.3% 6.0% 56.7% -0.74
Hungarian Opening: Myers Defense A00 59,643 55.9% 5.9% 38.2% 1.14
Semi-Tarrasch Defense: cxd5 D40 121,579 47.9% 5.9% 46.2% 0.27
Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation A02 113,600 52.0% 5.8% 42.2% 0.22
Elephant Gambit: d3 C40 400,944 43.4% 5.8% 50.8% -0.18
Australian Defense A40 73,389 61.2% 5.7% 33.1% 1.13
Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line: Bxd7+ B52 397,930 47.7% 5.7% 46.6% 0.13

Most-played openings

OpeningECOGamesWhite %Draw %Black %Stockfish
King's Pawn Game B00 1,694,309,369 49.7% 3.9% 46.4% 0.26
Queen's Pawn Game A40 619,617,409 50.6% 4.1% 45.3% 0.31
King's Knight Opening C40 520,577,907 51.2% 4.0% 44.8% 0.41
King's Pawn Game: e5 B00 520,577,907 51.2% 4.0% 44.8% 0.47
King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation C44 335,122,427 51.0% 4.1% 45.0% 0.29
Nimzowitsch Defense: Nf3 B00 335,122,427 51.0% 4.1% 45.0% 0.49
Zukertort Opening: Black Mustang Defense: e4 A04 335,122,427 51.0% 4.1% 45.0% 0.39
Sicilian Defense B20 263,173,656 47.5% 3.8% 48.7% 0.42
Sicilian Defense B20 263,173,656 47.5% 3.8% 48.7% 0.34
Scandinavian Defense B01 154,692,226 49.2% 4.1% 46.7% 0.68
Scandinavian Defense B01 154,692,226 49.2% 4.1% 46.7% 0.59
Bishop's Opening: Nc6 C23 153,909,405 50.9% 3.8% 45.3% 0.24
Italian Game C50 153,909,405 50.9% 3.8% 45.3% 0.14
Italian Game C50 153,909,405 50.9% 3.8% 45.3% 0.09
French Defense C00 151,884,235 47.9% 4.0% 48.1% 0.47
French Defense C00 151,884,235 47.9% 4.0% 48.1% 0.47
Zukertort Opening: c5 A04 135,644,722 48.1% 3.9% 48.0% 0.39
Queen's Gambit D06 113,079,864 53.0% 4.1% 42.9% 0.39
Queen's Pawn Game: d5 A40 113,079,864 53.0% 4.1% 42.9% 0.32
King's Pawn Game: d5 B00 105,487,311 50.4% 4.2% 45.4% 0.69

Download the data

Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 — please link back to this page.

opening-win-rates-best-white.csv opening-win-rates-best-white.json
opening-win-rates-best-black.csv opening-win-rates-best-black.json
opening-win-rates-highest-draw.csv opening-win-rates-highest-draw.json
opening-win-rates-most-played.csv opening-win-rates-most-played.json

Methodology: win rates and game counts from the Lichess Opening Explorer (blitz + rapid games, 1200–1600 rating bands); position evaluations from Stockfish at depth 16. Snapshot: July 2026. See the full dataset methodology for details.